We have sourced an API for Pinnacle data and have used it to push an enhancement to the corners lines on detailed games.
Traditionally we used the Spreads sites for corners data, and we recently added in a slider for you to change the Sell/Buy bias line at any range from 0% (sell) to 50% (midpoint) to 100% (buy).
We now have Pinnacle lines for corners that we have merged into the source data on detailed games. This work was ongoing over the Christmas break and it is now live. With multiple sources of data, the logic works as thus:
- Look for the game on pinnacle (not all games may be found due to team name synonym mismatches. These are logged for matching the following day by the team but may not be matched before KO).
- If it doesn’t have corners, use the spreads (an average of the both if both have data)
- If the matched game on Pinnacle has corners, ignore all lines at x.0 (as these factor in pushes).
- Collect all lines at x.5 and apply margin to all.
- Find the closest line to evens (after margin applied)
- Use an inverse poisson function to work out the expected corners.
Example: Everton vs Brighton
- In the Pinnacle lines below, Over 9, 10 and 11 are ignored due to containing a price for the Push.
- O/U 9.5 1.671/2.210 and O/U 10.5 2.080/1.757 is used. The margin is worked out for both (5.09% and 4.99%). The closest line to evens after the margin is applied is over 10.5.
- With no bias applied to the margin, the fair odds are 2.080 x 1.0499 = 2.18.
- Using an inverse Poisson calculation, the expected corners used by Pinnacle was 10.33.
5. We then use this line as a priority over the spreads at bookiebashing in the detailed games:
6. As a reality check, the line used on Sportingindex is buy 10.1, sell 10.6. The midpoint is 10.35 – very close to the 10.33 we have worked out from Pinnacle using an inverse Poisson function.
7. Using Pinnacle will allow us to limit the times when one or both Spreads are offering a vastly different opinion to the markets on corners.