Antony Gordon currently sits at 5.1-5.3 on the exchanges.
- A common misconception is that the exchange price is always the efficient price (the most accurate representation of his true probability).
- Some will always point to the exchange price and will argue “that’s what his price should be, I’ve been doing this for years”.
- So is 5.1-5.2 his true price? This suggests a 19% chance of a goal and an xG of 0.21 in a match where he may start up front and Newcastle are expected to get 2.18 goals.
- In this video we discuss whether this price looks right, the risks involved in estimating a price before team news and what we think a more accurate reflection of his price should be.
- Please note if you choose to bet on anytime goalscorer before team news then you accept the risk that he starts on the bench and comes on in the 89th minute.