Will Man City win their last remaining 6 Premier League games?
This bet went up on the exchanges due to a bookmaker boost. We wanted to know which side of it was value, the back or the lay – however the markets have only priced up the first game (vs Brighton). In order to know if it is value we need to estimate the odds against Forest, Wolves, Fulham, Spurs and West Ham.
To do this, each of 5 members of bookiebashing (Duncan, Lee, Tom, BBTeam 1, BBTeam 2) independently used their own models to price up the six games. Of course there are lots of “ifs and buts” depending on how the run in is going for Man City. These were the predictions:
The average price of the product of these six games was 6.51 across the five members.
Whilst we haven’t uncovered any value on either side, we may have inadvertantly given some validation to the Theory of the Wisdom of the Crowds:
