The lines discussed in this video are downloaded from the Archive Player xG Tool. Data is summarised in a spreadsheet at the bottom of this page.
- All data is from the English Premier League 23/24 Season
- The exchange odds are either the lay, back, last price matched or mid-point depending on logic based on the composition of the market.
- The closing price from both the player xG tool and Betfair Exchange are used in this analysis.
- Every player from the 23/24 season that (1) started the game and (2) had a legitimate BFx price has been considered in this analysis.
- 2% commission is assumed for ROI calculations.
- The sample size is 1,828 players. 832 backs were advised, and 996 lays.
- The highest EV was for Joel Veltman to score in Brighton vs Man City on 25th April 2024. We priced him at 28.4 at the time 44 was available on the exchange. He didn’t score.
| Sample size (players) | 1828.0 |
|---|---|
| Recorded goals | 307.0 |
| Expected goals (BFx Prices) | 301.1 |
| Expected goals (Player xG prices) | 306.0 |
| ROI Anytime Goalscorer (Unit Win backing) on the exchange (2% comm) | 7.00% |
| ROI Anytime Goalscorer (Unit Win laying) on the exchange (2% comm) | 1.41% |
| ROI First Goalscorer (Unit Win backing) on the exchange (2% comm) | 11.80% |
| ROI First Goalscorer (Unit Win laying) on the exchange (2% comm) | 5.63% |
