In this blog, let’s explore some sophisticated aspects, including drift steam tracking, advanced probability distributions, and the unique functionalities of our Betbuilder.

Drift Steam Tracking

One of the core principles of value betting is beating the closing line, which often involves identifying and capitalising on “steamers”—bets whose odds are shortening (indicating increasing likelihood). The Betbuilder integrates this with drift steam tracking, a powerful feature to enhance your betting insights.

• Static Lines vs. Dynamic Insights: Tools like the player XG and match XG provide static lines for any game. However, with our trackers, you can observe the dynamic movement—whether odds are drifting (increasing) or steaming (decreasing).
• Practical Application: For instance, if Nigeria’s odds to win move from 10.3 to 10.29 in a short span, this indicates a minor steaming, though not significant enough to act upon. Monitoring such movements over time can reveal valuable betting opportunities.

Utilising Probability Distributions

Understanding and applying probability distributions like Poisson and Skellam can significantly boost your betting accuracy.

• Poisson Distribution: This helps estimate the likelihood of a certain number of events (e.g., goals in a match) based on the average rate of occurrence.
  • Example: If you expect Nigeria to score an average of 2.4 goals in a match, the Poisson distribution can help calculate the probability of scoring over 2.5 goals.
• Skellam Distribution: Useful for comparing two competing Poisson-distributed events, like the number of goals scored by two teams.
  • Example: Comparing the expected goals of two teams, say 2.4 for Team A and 2.6 for Team B, to determine the probability of one team outscoring the other.

Advanced Metrics and Customisation

Our Betbuilder allows for complex customisations and metrics to tailor your betting strategy precisely.

• Not Metric: Use this to explore the opposite outcomes, such as a team not winning or a player not scoring.
  • Example: If Canada is favoured to win at 1.45 odds, the “not” metric will calculate the probability and corresponding odds for Canada not winning.
• Most Metric: Identify which team or player is likely to achieve the most in a given category (e.g., most goals).
  • Example: Predicting which team will score the most goals across multiple matches using their expected goals.
• Static Variables: Integrate your own data and multipliers to refine your calculations.
  • Example: Multiplying Nigeria’s winning odds by a custom factor to match your specific model’s output.

Real-Time Tracking and Versatility

The versatility of the Betbuilder extends to real-time tracking of various markets, including:

• Betfair Exchange Bets: Monitor live movements and adjust your strategies accordingly.
• Bookmaker Prices: Compare and track best prices offered by different bookmakers.
• Custom Bets: Track a huge range of markets, from football handicaps to basketball total points, and update in real-time.

Practical Examples

To illustrate these functionalities, let’s consider some practical examples:

• Steam Tracking Example: You start tracking the odds for a specific bet (e.g., Nigeria to win). If the odds move favourably within a short period, this indicates a steamer worth further attention.
• Advanced Metrics Example: Using the “most” metric to determine which team is expected to score the most goals across several World Cup matches, employing Poisson and Skellam distributions for precise calculations.