The graph below shows the return from every First Goalscorer closing line on the exchange in the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 under the following 2 strategies:
- Backing every player blindly to win 2% bankroll (£1k bank)
- Laying every +EV with a 25% Kelly Stake based on a comparison to the Bookiebashing FirstGoalscorer price (£1k bankroll).
- The “Fair” closing price was used for each player. This could be Last Price Matched if still between the back and the lay, else it will be the back or lay if the market is efficient enough, else it will be Null Price.
- 87.8% of closing line prices were value lays (8,471).
- All matches between 1 Jan 2023 and 4 Oct 2024 were analysed.
