How it works Player xG

What is it?

The BookieBashing Player xG Tool is the most advanced model available to bettors that tracks and models the expected goals of every player in every primary and secondary football match in the UK and around the world. 

The Player xG tool uses the markets to estimate the number of goals a player will score. The input  is the anytime goalscorer price and the source varies depending on the market conditions. The latest exchange price will be used if there is valid trading informaiton on Betfair Exchange. If there is no information on the exchange then the markets will be used – top price will be taken from a variety of different bookmakers. 

From the anytime goalscorer price we are able to reverse engineer the xG used by the market makers. From Player xG we can extrapolate our own prices for First Goalscorer, 2+ and 3+ that are independent of the exchange. This allows us to profit on the exchange in these markets. We also return the neutral odds and EV of all players that qualify for Betfreds Double Delight Hatrick Heaven Concession.

Team news will be available for ten leagues in the hour before kick off. When team news is received we will assign 0 xG to all players not starting, and the 20 players on the pitch (discounting goalkeepers) will have their xG normalised to equal their team xG.

Features

    • Considers xG for all players in primary and secondary matches in the UK and abroad.
    • Monitors lines lives and adjusts with the markets.
    • Returns the xG based on the live anytime goalscorer price.
    • Anytime goalscorer price source will be labelled as Betfair Exchange, BBP (best bookmaker price with appropriate market) or Betfair Exchange Back price.
    • Returns the probability of 2+ and 3+ goals based on an in-house probability model to estimate multiple goals based on a 20 year study of Premier League footballers.
    • Returns First Goalscorer calculated by FGS = Player xG / Match xG.
    • Returns the EV of the live available FGS price on the exchange
    • Returns the neutral odds for Betfreds Double Delight Hatrick Heaven
    • Returns the live EV for Betfreds Double Delight Hattrick Heaven. The Player xG tool pushes all DDHH bets to the bet tracker at 1 hour before Kick Off.
    • Toggle the FGS input for DDHH calculation between the bookiebashing FGS calc and betfair exchange FGS.
    • Scorecast Model – Fair odds for Scorecast, Wincast, Anytime Scorecast and Anytime Wincast
    • Team News – Team news will arrive approximately 1 hour before kick off. Players that do not start will have 0 xG assigned and will drop off the trackers. Players that do start will have their xG normalised to equal the Team xG.
    • The user can define how many goals are scored by substitues.
    • Labels on the main page of the player xG tool will allow the user to see which games have lines for Scorecast models, DDHH, Inplay DDHH and whether team news has been received.
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