Working on a theory that there is value in Shots on Target due to ridiculous amounts of bias in the Overs. To do this I had a look at modelling my own Shots on Target this week based on a combination of historical data and current match AGS/FGS prices, and it initially appears to me …
Over / Under 2.5 goals in the 2019-20 added to the earlier analysis. A loss of £1,024 would have been made betting the favourite to win in the over/under 2.5 market on the EPL this season to 2nd Feb. EPL -£1025 Champ -£2014 League 1 +£1680 League 2 +£1705 Across all four leagues (over 1367 …
UK Football 2019/20 – Favourite Performance on Overs Read More »
Betting each favourite to win £200 at SP in the 2019/20 season The graph below shows the results of betting each favuorite up to 2nd February 2020. This strategy would have resulted in profit in League 1 and League 2. Betting each fav would have resulted in -£2,180 in the EPL and -£2216 in the …
Assume we want to benchmark the fair odds of a market, but there is no liquidity at the exchange. We can estimate the Fair Odds of an event in a Closed (or Complete) market by analysing a bookmakers prices, determining the markup and estimating bias. A complete betting market is a market that contains prices …
Markup-Bias Analysis: Estimating the probabilty of an event from closed markets Read More »
The Corners Problem Corners are not independent. A corner will often lead to another corner. They come in clusters. Poisson can be a useful model, but it is most precise when events that are being counted are independent and do not come in clusters. This means that the observed chance of 0 corners is higher …
We have a model that we use for to calculate equity in PGA and European Tour golf events. Each week we use the processes below to develop a portfolio of value bets for each tournament based on the available back price, places paid and each way terms. In this page we discuss: Results over the …
Calculating Equity in PGA and European Tour Golf Events Read More »
Below we present three methods for estimating over x goals in y games: Method A – using the exchange Daily Goals Market Method B – using over 0.5 to over 7.5 exchange data for each game Method C – using a discrete probability distribution This is followed by a case study using real data …
Three methods for estimating the probability of over x goals in y games Read More »
1. Australian Open treble @ Ladbrokes 2. Trifecta at The Masters @William Hill Don’t let the fact the bet is impossible stop you from restricting me, William: 3. Free Spins @ Wild Spins. 4. PSG to win and 4+ goals in the match @ Ladbrokes 5. Every double to be hit during a PDC World …
Value betting Dutching the race Laying the win only and targeting any place Laying the win and the place and targeting the EP It is possible to make long term profit by betting on horse races where the terms are in our favour. The return can average 20% of overall stake placed on a …
4 methods for extracting value from horse races with additional paid places Read More »
What is smart money? Why is it smart? Why bet on it? Betting on Smart Money 2013/14 to 2017/2018 seasons with a Time Machine Real Life Case Study: Applying the Strategy to 2018/19 Season in an attempt to make £100k What is smart money? Connected individuals, syndicates and all round smarty-pants will generally get …
Value Betting Strategy: Following Smart Money in the 2018/19 football season Read More »