No. We encourage users to turn off Win Arbs, and we actively seek to find value in markets that do not have any liquidity.

A system that allows you to win indefinitely at the bookmaker does not exist. The sheer act of withdrawing profit from the bookmaker in the long run will lead to restrictions, regardless of our actions. However there are a few things we can do to delay restrictions as long as possible; filtering out Win Arbs, placing multiples and utilising the BBAlgo are all activities that can delay account restrictions.

This depends on your risk tolerance. Betting over 110% would have achieved a 33% ROI over the year. Betting over 100% would have achieved a 5% ROI. Betting over 104% would have achieved a 14% ROI. Including a horse under 100% EV in a Lucky 15 will likely still produce a +EV betslip, and the -EV horse may help delay account restrictions.  Betting at lower levels allows you to get more volume down potentially increasing your profits despite the lower ROI.

Primarily to compound EV. Placing two 103% EV singles in a double results in a 106.09% EV bet. Lucky 15s, Lucky 31s and lucky 63s compound the value we are getting on each horse, and have the potential to return a jackpot payday.

An added bonus is for account preservation, sticking your horses into an ACCA or System Bet will reduce the chance of receiving the dreaded email as multiples are much harder to lay off.You will also find enhancements available on bets such as lucky 15s in certain shops where they will pay out additional amounts if only one horse wins or if they all win.  These enhancements can be big for the EV you achieve.  Have a play around with the System Bets calculator to see the effect.

The tracker isn’t designed for this and we do not recommend it as you will be wasting time and eroding the value by doing so.  We prefer the use of good bankroll management and appropriate staking.

The number of horses you back in each race is personal preference. If you could back all of them at positive EV you could effectively dutch the race resulting in no risk at all so backing too many horses isn’t an issue.

Double check your settings and filters to make sure there is nothing obvious filtering everything out.

If it all looks sensible contact us, we will be able to reset your settings for you.

If you still have the scrolly circle, it is not loading, try turning sparklines off in your settings and filtering EV below 95%.  This will reduce the load and help if you are in a low signal area.

This is the logic in the Horse Racing Tracker for Confidence: All prices refer to Place probability.

Confidence 1 (Green)

If the back/lay difference is less then 6% use the back/lay middle.

If there are more than 4 last trades and the min/max of those last trades difference is less than 20% use the Last Traded price.

Confidence 2 (Blue)

Else if the market overround is greater than 90% and the back/lay difference is less then 20%.

If the last trade is between the back/lay use that else use the lay minus 30% the back / lay difference.

Confidence 3 (Blue but less full)

Else if the market overround is greater than 75% and the back/lay difference is less then 25% – if the  last trade is between back/lay use that else use the lay minus 20% of the back / lay diff

Confidence 4 (Yellow)

Else if the Best Bookmaker Price for Place exists use that

Confidence 5 (Red)

Else use the BBAlgo. Quality check if the default price is less than the back price then use the back price.  if the default price is greater than the lay price use the lay.

Our data comes from 3 sources:

1. We use available data from the exchange
2. We monitor best bookmaker prices
3. We use an in house algorithm (BBAlgo) that looks at all similar races in the past to come up with estimated place probabilities

We work out value in 99%+ UK races. Unfortunately there are some races we just can’t estimate. If it is 4 places in a 16 runner field we have thousands of races to look at historically, aswell as exchange and comparable bookmaker market information. If it is 9 places in a 37 runner field:

1. No 9 place markets on the exchange to look at
2. No comparable 9 place markets at bookmakers to estimate top price from
3. No historical data to look at. Maybe a similar race happened once, or 20 times before. That sample size is not statistically significant enough for us to work out a pattern of place probability.

Unfortunately these constraints mean that we don’t use the BBAlgo on some high profile unusual races – like the 40 runner Grand National. With a sample size of 16 races going back to 2007 the r squared value (a statistical value that returns how confident the pattern fit is) of our regression analysis is too poor to return probability estimations.

We “estimate” Expected Value on our trackers. In the calculation of an estimation of Fair Odds there is no global Right or Wrong answer. Rather there are “good enough” estimations which will have a range of confidence levels.

The BBAlgo has the lowest confidence rating. We do not profess to be able price up more accurately than the exchange. If the exchange has a liquid place price we would recommend using that. This does not make our estimation wrong, rather it is priced on the exchange with more information then we were able to use.

Sometimes an unusual race will throw up some illogical numbers. For example, a horse may be lower EV at 9 places then at 8 places in the same 31 runner race under the same odds. This can happen because in Regression Analysis we look for patters in similar races. 31 runner fields are very unusual, and the pattern analysis may result in logical inconsistencies. Them ore unusual the race size + places the less confidence we can have in the BBAlgo. 

This does not make the BBAlgo estimation Right or Wrong, and using it blindly will be profitable over large betting volume. The ROI is comparable and occasionally higher to using the exchange. If you want to refine your selection criteria you may want to evaluate the place calculation of each horse, however you will still be profitable in the long term if you choose not to do this.