Compound EV Lucky 15s
A Lucky 15 bet is a bet on four selections and consists of 4 x singles, six doubles, four trebles and a four-fold.
It is a tool that is commonly used by advantage players to compound EV (Expected Value).
Most people are aware that the way horses are priced up in the UK provides opportunities for the well informed punter to take value where the races are structured in a way that favours an each way bet.
Unfortunately the bookies are aware of this too There are filthy each way races where a short priced favourite results in longer prices the rest of the field. This very often leads to a good price on the place that can outweigh the poor price offered on the win.
There are also races where bookmakers offer extra place concessions which again present good value on the place element of an each way bet.
The question is, how do we take advantage of these situations given that the bookmaker knows there is value, we know that the bookmaker knows there is value and the bookmaker knows that we know that the bookmaker knows there is value?
Getting your bets down – Use multiples
So the value is there but if we bet on it we’re likely to have our account restricted online or we’d end up PTL’d in shop as the bookie would think we were arbing. If we put a selection of value bets into an accumulator or other multiple the bookies don’t see us as arbers and are less likely to restrict us.
A four horse accumulator could result in pretty high variance – particularly as the value is often found at long prices but if we stick them all into an Each Way Lucky 15 the variance is flattened out and we still have the opportunity of a +EV lottery ticket shot at a big win. Yankees are also a good option, sacking off the singles but potentially being allowed higher stakes.
There is also an added advantage of using multiples, you are using the very reason that bookies love punters placing these against them. Compounding the EV.
Bookmakers rely on you picking four -EV horses and they get a great result as 95% x 95% x 95% x 95% = 81.5%.
But we are turning the tables by selecting +EV horses 105% x 105% x 105% x 105% = 121.6%.
Higher variance it may be but with a well managed bankroll this can be a goldmine.
Another advantage available in shops is a widely used enhancement whereby the bookmaker will offer 3x, 4x or 5x payouts if only one of your Lucky 15, 31 or 63 horses wins. This just serves to boost the EV of your bet further.
Look out for the slips in store, it can work well particularly when aiming for longer odds horses. Check the terms at the bottom of the slips.
Tips for confirming prices in shops
Just because we write a price down on a betslip doesn’t mean the bookie will guarantee it.
Nothing is more annoying then writing odds onto a L15 form, seeing it come in, then being paid out < half what we expected because the prices weren’t live at the time of bet placement.
You’d think the cashier would tell us this – but they don’t.
1. When writing the form, check the screen for prices.
2. Ask the cashier if all the prices are held when you hand over the ticket. If one is cut marginally (e.g. 10/1 to 8/1) think about just taking the cut, its good for shop image and is often still a +EV bet. Numerous cuts and 40/1 to 16/1 is obviously a different story.
3. Alternatively, fill in the horse names and ask the cashier to “take the price” – they’ll write the prices for you, and you can bail if any look substantially lower than expected.
A bit of memory and quick thinking is required for this so have a plan ahead of time – don’t go cold, dry and unprepared. We need to be coming in hot.
Make sure your bets are value
The downside with using shops is the odds available don’t always match those online, care needs to be taken to avoid big discrepancies. William Hill in particular are known for not matching their online prices whilst Betfred will much more often match online.
You can sort the tracker by bookmaker to get the latest details from OddsChecker but you will still need to double check these against the shop prices.
Finding value
Use the EV finder in the horse racing tracker to find the value. Have a look at the overall picture and then sort it by whatever bookmaker looks good or whatever shop you are stood outside.
Further details on how to use the tracker can be found here.
How much should my bankroll be?
The bank required would be dependent on the stakes you were putting down and the odds of the horses in each lucky 15. It’s a reasonably complex thing with multiples but you can get a rough idea from using the staking with Kelly calculator here.
Be warned that Kelly is an aggressive staking system, rarely does anyone stake above 1/4 Kelly and you should start lower than that until you get idea on where your tolerance level is in terms of risk.
Variance will be high so make sure you’re comfortable with your stakes. It’s easier to up your stake after a good start than to claw back losses after a bad one.